Wyre Forest
Westminster constituency · England · West Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 84% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.2 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 96%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wyre Forest | 30.3% | 28.5% | 21.5% | 8.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+7.3 | 20.4%+8.1 | 24.3%−2.7 | 10.4%−1.9 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 102,328 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 47 |
| Employment rate | 82.3% |
Current member
Mark Garnier · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 1.8 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 2.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Garnier Elected | Conservative | 14,489 | 32.1 |
| Vicki Smith | Labour | 13,677 | 30.3 |
| Bill Hopkins | Reform UK | 9,682 | 21.4 |
| Shazu Miah | Lib Dems | 2,809 | 6.2 |
| John Davis | Green | 2,443 | 5.4 |
| Leigh Whitehouse | Other | 1,535 | 3.4 |
| Nigel Geary | Other | 523 | 1.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Worcester Labour, toss-up
- West Worcestershire Conservative, safe seat
- Stourbridge Reform UK, toss-up
- Kingswinford and South Staffordshire Conservative, toss-up
- Dudley Reform UK, safe seat
- Halesowen Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated