Dudley
Westminster constituency · England · West Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dudley | 35.6% | 24.7% | 24.3% | 6.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+12.5 | 24.3%+0.4 | 20.4%+3.9 | 10.4%−3.8 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 101,765 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 39 |
| Employment rate | 66.6% |
Current member
Sonia Kumar · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 5.3 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 10.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sonia Kumar Elected | Labour | 12,215 | 34.1 |
| Marco Longhi | Conservative | 10,315 | 28.8 |
| Andrew Southall | Reform UK | 9,442 | 26.4 |
| Zia Qari | Green | 1,154 | 3.2 |
| Ian Flynn | Lib Dems | 1,056 | 2.9 |
| Shakeela Bibi | Other | 857 | 2.4 |
| Aftab Hussain | Other | 621 | 1.7 |
| Dharmanand Mortha | Other | 136 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Stourbridge Reform UK, toss-up
- Wolverhampton South East Labour, toss-up
- Tipton and Wednesbury Reform UK, safe seat
- Halesowen Reform UK, toss-up
- Wolverhampton West Labour, safe seat
- Wolverhampton North East Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated