Wolverhampton South East
Westminster constituency · England · West Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 53%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolverhampton South East | 37.8% | 32.6% | 14.4% | 7.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+13.5 | 23.1%+9.6 | 20.4%−6.1 | 10.4%−2.6 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 122,195 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 36 |
| Employment rate | 73.8% |
Current member
Pat McFadden · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 27.5 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 5.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pat McFadden Elected | Labour | 16,800 | 50.3 |
| Carl Hardwick | Reform UK | 7,612 | 22.8 |
| Victoria Wilson | Conservative | 5,654 | 16.9 |
| Paul Darke | Green | 1,643 | 4.9 |
| Athar Warraich | Other | 915 | 2.7 |
| Bart Ricketts | Lib Dems | 758 | 2.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Tipton and Wednesbury Reform UK, safe seat
- Wolverhampton North East Reform UK, toss-up
- Dudley Reform UK, safe seat
- West Bromwich Labour, toss-up
- Walsall and Bloxwich Reform UK, toss-up
- Wolverhampton West Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated