Wolverhampton West
Westminster constituency · England · West Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolverhampton West | 34.4% | 23.5% | 22.2% | 9.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+10.1 | 20.4%+3.1 | 23.1%−0.8 | 10.4%−1.4 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 113,748 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 40 |
| Employment rate | 76.9% |
Current member
Warinder Juss · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 18.0 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 10.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Warinder Juss Elected | Labour | 19,331 | 44.3 |
| Mike Newton | Conservative | 11,463 | 26.3 |
| Don Brookes | Reform UK | 6,078 | 13.9 |
| Andrea Cantrill | Green | 2,550 | 5.8 |
| Celia Hibbert | Other | 1,395 | 3.2 |
| Phillip Howells | Lib Dems | 1,376 | 3.2 |
| Zahid Shah | Other | 888 | 2.0 |
| Vikas Chopra | Other | 576 | 1.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Kingswinford and South Staffordshire Conservative, toss-up
- Wolverhampton North East Reform UK, toss-up
- Dudley Reform UK, safe seat
- Wolverhampton South East Labour, toss-up
- Tipton and Wednesbury Reform UK, safe seat
- Stourbridge Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated