Tipton and Wednesbury
Westminster constituency · England · West Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tipton and Wednesbury | 37.2% | 26.3% | 21.0% | 7.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+14.1 | 24.3%+2.0 | 20.4%+0.6 | 10.4%−2.8 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 114,582 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 37 |
| Employment rate | 56.2% |
Current member
Antonia Bance · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 10.6 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 10.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Antonia Bance Elected | Labour | 11,755 | 36.9 |
| Shaun Bailey | Conservative | 8,370 | 26.3 |
| Jack Sabharwal | Reform UK | 8,019 | 25.2 |
| Mark Redding | Green | 1,509 | 4.7 |
| Mohammed Hussain-Billa | Other | 945 | 3.0 |
| Abdul Husen | Other | 660 | 2.1 |
| Mark Rochell | Lib Dems | 592 | 1.9 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Wolverhampton South East Labour, toss-up
- West Bromwich Labour, toss-up
- Smethwick Labour, safe seat
- Dudley Reform UK, safe seat
- Walsall and Bloxwich Reform UK, toss-up
- Wolverhampton North East Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated