Walsall and Bloxwich
Westminster constituency · England · West Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 96% chance of winning, with an average lead of 4.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 61%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walsall and Bloxwich | 29.7% | 25.6% | 16.2% | 15.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+6.6 | 24.3%+1.3 | 20.4%−4.2 | 5.0%+10.7 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 118,282 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 35 |
| Employment rate | 63.1% |
Current member
Valerie Vaz · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 13.2 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 4.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valerie Vaz Elected | Labour | 12,514 | 33.7 |
| Aftab Nawaz | Other | 7,600 | 20.4 |
| Elaine Williams | Reform UK | 7,293 | 19.6 |
| Shannon Lloyd | Conservative | 6,679 | 18.0 |
| Sadat Hussain | Green | 2,288 | 6.2 |
| Patrick Stillman | Lib Dems | 817 | 2.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Aldridge-Brownhills Conservative, toss-up
- West Bromwich Labour, toss-up
- Tipton and Wednesbury Reform UK, safe seat
- Wolverhampton South East Labour, toss-up
- Birmingham Perry Barr Other, safe seat
- Wolverhampton North East Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated