Aldridge-Brownhills
Westminster constituency · England · West Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a 85% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.2 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 95%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aldridge-Brownhills | 34.6% | 32.7% | 19.3% | 7.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+14.2 | 23.1%+9.6 | 24.3%−4.9 | 10.4%−3.3 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 93,720 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 45 |
| Employment rate | 78.4% |
Current member
Wendy Morton · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 10.5 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 2.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wendy Morton Elected | Conservative | 15,901 | 38.9 |
| Luke Davies | Labour | 11,607 | 28.4 |
| Graham Eardley | Reform UK | 9,903 | 24.2 |
| Ian Garrett | Lib Dems | 1,755 | 4.3 |
| Clare Nash | Green | 1,746 | 4.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Walsall and Bloxwich Reform UK, toss-up
- Birmingham Perry Barr Other, safe seat
- Cannock Chase Reform UK, safe seat
- Birmingham Erdington Labour, toss-up
- West Bromwich Labour, toss-up
- Tipton and Wednesbury Reform UK, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated