Cannock Chase
Westminster constituency · England · West Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 11.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cannock Chase | 37.1% | 24.8% | 23.3% | 8.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+14.0 | 20.4%+4.4 | 24.3%−0.9 | 10.4%−1.7 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 101,140 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 42 |
| Employment rate | 82.5% |
Current member
Josh Newbury · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 7.3 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 11.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Newbury Elected | Labour | 15,671 | 36.5 |
| Amanda Milling | Conservative | 12,546 | 29.2 |
| Paul Allen | Reform UK | 11,570 | 26.9 |
| Andrea Muckley | Green | 2,137 | 5.0 |
| Elizabeth Jewkes | Lib Dems | 1,029 | 2.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Aldridge-Brownhills Conservative, toss-up
- Walsall and Bloxwich Reform UK, toss-up
- Lichfield Reform UK, toss-up
- Wolverhampton North East Reform UK, toss-up
- Stone, Great Wyrley and Penkridge Conservative, safe seat
- Wolverhampton South East Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated