Lichfield
Westminster constituency · England · West Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 76% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.9 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 98%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lichfield | 30.9% | 29.5% | 21.9% | 7.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+7.8 | 20.4%+9.1 | 24.3%−2.3 | 10.4%−2.6 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 98,104 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 46 |
| Employment rate | 80.7% |
Current member
Dave Robertson · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 1.7 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 1.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dave Robertson Elected | Labour | 17,232 | 35.1 |
| Michael Fabricant | Conservative | 16,422 | 33.4 |
| Richard Howard | Reform UK | 9,734 | 19.8 |
| Paul Ray | Lib Dems | 3,572 | 7.3 |
| Heather McNeillis | Green | 1,724 | 3.5 |
| Pete Longman | Other | 322 | 0.7 |
| John Madden | Other | 98 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Cannock Chase Reform UK, safe seat
- Burton and Uttoxeter Reform UK, toss-up
- Aldridge-Brownhills Conservative, toss-up
- Tamworth Reform UK, safe seat
- Walsall and Bloxwich Reform UK, toss-up
- Sutton Coldfield Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated