Burton and Uttoxeter
Westminster constituency · England · West Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 96% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 81%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burton and Uttoxeter | 30.4% | 26.7% | 25.0% | 8.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+7.3 | 20.4%+6.3 | 24.3%+0.7 | 10.4%−1.8 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 114,123 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 40 |
| Employment rate | 86.1% |
Current member
Jacob Collier · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 5.0 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 3.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Collier Elected | Labour | 16,222 | 35.6 |
| Kate Kniveton | Conservative | 13,956 | 30.6 |
| James Bush | Reform UK | 9,611 | 21.1 |
| Anna Williams Westwood | Green | 2,119 | 4.6 |
| Azmat Mir | Other | 2,056 | 4.5 |
| Sarah Murray | Lib Dems | 1,663 | 3.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Lichfield Reform UK, toss-up
- Derbyshire Dales Conservative, toss-up
- Staffordshire Moorlands Reform UK, toss-up
- Cannock Chase Reform UK, safe seat
- Tamworth Reform UK, safe seat
- Stoke-on-Trent South Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated