Staffordshire Moorlands
Westminster constituency · England · West Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 74% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.8 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 98%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Staffordshire Moorlands | 32.4% | 31.2% | 22.8% | 8.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+9.3 | 20.4%+10.8 | 24.3%−1.5 | 10.4%−2.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 85,262 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 49 |
| Employment rate | 74.8% |
Current member
Dame Karen Bradley · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 2.7 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 1.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Karen Bradley Elected | Conservative | 15,310 | 35.4 |
| Alastair Watson | Labour | 14,135 | 32.6 |
| Dave Poole | Reform UK | 10,065 | 23.2 |
| Helen Stead | Green | 2,293 | 5.3 |
| Graham Oakes | Lib Dems | 1,499 | 3.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Stoke-on-Trent South Reform UK, toss-up
- Stoke-on-Trent Central Reform UK, toss-up
- Burton and Uttoxeter Reform UK, toss-up
- Stoke-on-Trent North Reform UK, safe seat
- Macclesfield Labour, competitive
- Derbyshire Dales Conservative, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated