Stoke-on-Trent Central
Westminster constituency · England · West Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 83% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.4 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 100%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke-on-Trent Central | 33.1% | 31.1% | 15.3% | 9.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+10.0 | 24.3%+6.9 | 20.4%−5.1 | 10.4%−1.2 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 113,822 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 36 |
| Employment rate | 81.8% |
Current member
Gareth Snell · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 18.2 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 2.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gareth Snell Elected | Labour | 14,950 | 42.4 |
| Luke Shenton | Reform UK | 8,541 | 24.2 |
| Chandra Kanneganti | Conservative | 6,221 | 17.6 |
| Navid Kaleem | Other | 2,281 | 6.5 |
| Adam Colclough | Green | 1,703 | 4.8 |
| Laura McCarthy | Lib Dems | 999 | 2.8 |
| Andy Poleshaw | Other | 315 | 0.9 |
| AliRom Alirom | Other | 279 | 0.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Stoke-on-Trent North Reform UK, safe seat
- Stoke-on-Trent South Reform UK, toss-up
- Newcastle-under-Lyme Reform UK, toss-up
- Staffordshire Moorlands Reform UK, toss-up
- Stafford Reform UK, toss-up
- Congleton Conservative, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated