Stafford
Westminster constituency · England · West Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 76% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.0 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 100%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stafford | 29.2% | 27.4% | 26.5% | 10.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+6.2 | 24.3%+3.2 | 20.4%+6.1 | 10.4%−0.2 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 96,002 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 44 |
| Employment rate | 76.1% |
Current member
Leigh Ingham · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 10.0 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 2.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leigh Ingham Elected | Labour | 18,531 | 40.3 |
| Theo Clarke | Conservative | 13,936 | 30.3 |
| Michael Riley | Reform UK | 8,612 | 18.7 |
| Scott Spencer | Green | 2,856 | 6.2 |
| Peter Andras | Lib Dems | 1,676 | 3.6 |
| Titus Anything | Other | 307 | 0.7 |
| Craig Morton | Other | 91 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Newcastle-under-Lyme Reform UK, toss-up
- Stone, Great Wyrley and Penkridge Conservative, safe seat
- Stoke-on-Trent Central Reform UK, toss-up
- The Wrekin Conservative, toss-up
- Stoke-on-Trent South Reform UK, toss-up
- Stoke-on-Trent North Reform UK, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated