Stoke-on-Trent North
Westminster constituency · England · West Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 8%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke-on-Trent North | 35.7% | 27.5% | 21.6% | 7.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+12.6 | 24.3%+3.2 | 20.4%+1.2 | 10.4%−3.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 100,899 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 40 |
| Employment rate | 70.5% |
Current member
David Williams · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 14.1 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 8.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| David Williams Elected | Labour | 14,579 | 40.3 |
| Jonathan Gullis | Conservative | 9,497 | 26.3 |
| Karl Beresford | Reform UK | 8,824 | 24.4 |
| Josh Harris | Green | 1,236 | 3.4 |
| Jag Boyapati | Other | 1,103 | 3.1 |
| Lucy Hurds | Lib Dems | 911 | 2.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Stoke-on-Trent Central Reform UK, toss-up
- Newcastle-under-Lyme Reform UK, toss-up
- Congleton Conservative, toss-up
- Stoke-on-Trent South Reform UK, toss-up
- Macclesfield Labour, competitive
- Staffordshire Moorlands Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated