Congleton
Westminster constituency · England · North West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a 79% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.1 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 96%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Congleton | 28.2% | 25.9% | 25.6% | 8.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+7.7 | 23.1%+2.9 | 24.3%+1.3 | 10.4%−2.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 92,687 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 46 |
| Employment rate | 77.4% |
Current member
Sarah Russell · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 6.8 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 2.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Russell Elected | Labour | 18,875 | 37.7 |
| Fiona Bruce | Conservative | 15,488 | 30.9 |
| Martin York | Reform UK | 8,245 | 16.5 |
| Paul Duffy | Lib Dems | 2,785 | 5.6 |
| Rob Moreton | Other | 2,181 | 4.4 |
| Richard McCarthy | Green | 2,007 | 4.0 |
| Kay Wesley | Other | 544 | 1.1 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Crewe and Nantwich Labour, toss-up
- Newcastle-under-Lyme Reform UK, toss-up
- Tatton Conservative, safe seat
- Stoke-on-Trent North Reform UK, safe seat
- Mid Cheshire Labour, toss-up
- Macclesfield Labour, competitive
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated