Newcastle-under-Lyme
Westminster constituency · England · West Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 97% chance of winning, with an average lead of 4.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 52%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle-under-Lyme | 32.5% | 28.0% | 23.1% | 9.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+9.5 | 24.3%+3.7 | 20.4%+2.7 | 10.4%−1.3 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 94,605 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 41 |
| Employment rate | 67.1% |
Current member
Adam Jogee · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 12.8 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 4.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Jogee Elected | Labour | 15,992 | 40.4 |
| Simon Tagg | Conservative | 10,923 | 27.6 |
| Neill Walker | Reform UK | 8,865 | 22.4 |
| Nigel Jones | Lib Dems | 1,987 | 5.0 |
| Jennifer Hibell | Green | 1,851 | 4.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Stoke-on-Trent North Reform UK, safe seat
- Crewe and Nantwich Labour, toss-up
- Congleton Conservative, toss-up
- Stoke-on-Trent Central Reform UK, toss-up
- Stafford Reform UK, toss-up
- Stoke-on-Trent South Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated