Stoke-on-Trent South
Westminster constituency · England · West Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 93% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 88%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke-on-Trent South | 31.3% | 28.4% | 23.8% | 7.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+8.2 | 20.4%+8.0 | 24.3%−0.4 | 10.4%−3.4 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 94,651 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 43 |
| Employment rate | 74.0% |
Current member
Dr Allison Gardner · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 1.5 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 2.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Allison Gardner Elected | Labour | 14,221 | 34.7 |
| Jack Brereton | Conservative | 13,594 | 33.2 |
| Michael Baily | Reform UK | 8,851 | 21.6 |
| Alec Sandiford | Lib Dems | 1,577 | 3.9 |
| Asif Mehmood | Other | 1,372 | 3.4 |
| Peggy Wiseman | Green | 1,207 | 2.9 |
| Carla Parrish | Other | 120 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Stoke-on-Trent Central Reform UK, toss-up
- Stoke-on-Trent North Reform UK, safe seat
- Staffordshire Moorlands Reform UK, toss-up
- Stone, Great Wyrley and Penkridge Conservative, safe seat
- Stafford Reform UK, toss-up
- Newcastle-under-Lyme Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated