Crewe and Nantwich
Westminster constituency · England · North West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 77%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crewe and Nantwich | 32.5% | 28.9% | 20.6% | 8.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+8.2 | 23.1%+5.8 | 20.4%+0.1 | 10.4%−1.5 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 112,193 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 41 |
| Employment rate | 76.8% |
Current member
Connor Naismith · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 20.6 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 3.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Naismith Elected | Labour | 20,837 | 44.2 |
| Ben Fletcher | Conservative | 11,110 | 23.5 |
| Matt Wood | Reform UK | 9,602 | 20.3 |
| Matthew Theobald | Lib Dems | 2,286 | 4.8 |
| Te Ata Browne | Green | 2,151 | 4.6 |
| Brian Silvester | Other | 588 | 1.3 |
| Phil Lane | Other | 373 | 0.8 |
| Lord Psychobilly Tractor | Other | 250 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Mid Cheshire Labour, toss-up
- Newcastle-under-Lyme Reform UK, toss-up
- Congleton Conservative, toss-up
- Tatton Conservative, safe seat
- Chester South and Eddisbury Conservative, safe seat
- Stoke-on-Trent North Reform UK, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated