Chester South and Eddisbury
Westminster constituency · England · North West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 11.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Labour | Reform UK | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chester South and Eddisbury | 35.5% | 23.6% | 20.0% | 8.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+15.1 | 24.3%−0.6 | 23.1%−3.0 | 10.3%−1.6 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 95,656 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 48 |
| Employment rate | 78.6% |
Current member
Aphra Brandreth · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 5.8 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 11.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aphra Brandreth Elected | Conservative | 19,905 | 37.9 |
| Angeliki Stogia | Labour | 16,848 | 32.1 |
| Peter Langley | Reform UK | 6,414 | 12.2 |
| Rob Herd | Lib Dems | 5,430 | 10.3 |
| Steve Davies | Green | 2,278 | 4.3 |
| Gillian Edwards | Other | 1,611 | 3.1 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Mid Cheshire Labour, toss-up
- Runcorn and Helsby Labour, safe seat
- Crewe and Nantwich Labour, toss-up
- North Shropshire Lib Dems, safe seat
- Wrexham Reform UK, toss-up
- Warrington South Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated