North Shropshire
Westminster constituency · England · West Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Lib Dems a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 19.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Lib Dems | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Shropshire | 44.5% | 24.7% | 18.3% | 6.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 10.3%+34.2 | 23.1%+1.7 | 20.4%−2.1 | 10.4%−4.4 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 102,001 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 48 |
| Employment rate | 75.2% |
Current member
Helen Morgan · Lib Dems
Previous election (2024)
The Lib Dems won by 30.9 points.
Our current projection: the Lib Dems ahead by 19.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Helen Morgan Elected | Lib Dems | 26,214 | 52.9 |
| Simon Baynes | Conservative | 10,903 | 22.0 |
| Mark Whittle | Reform UK | 7,687 | 15.5 |
| Natalie Rowley | Labour | 3,423 | 6.9 |
| Craig Emery | Green | 1,234 | 2.5 |
| Samuel Cladingbowl | Other | 133 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Shrewsbury Labour, safe seat
- Wrexham Reform UK, toss-up
- Chester South and Eddisbury Conservative, safe seat
- The Wrekin Conservative, toss-up
- South Shropshire Conservative, toss-up
- Telford Reform UK, competitive
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated