Telford
Westminster constituency · England · West Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 25%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Telford | 35.9% | 29.7% | 18.5% | 9.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+12.9 | 24.3%+5.4 | 20.4%−1.9 | 10.4%−1.0 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 106,909 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 38 |
| Employment rate | 78.0% |
Current member
Shaun Davies · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 19.9 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 6.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Davies Elected | Labour | 18,212 | 44.7 |
| Alan Adams | Reform UK | 10,110 | 24.8 |
| Hannah Campbell | Conservative | 8,728 | 21.4 |
| John Adams | Green | 2,120 | 5.2 |
| Jo McKenna | Lib Dems | 1,560 | 3.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- The Wrekin Conservative, toss-up
- Stafford Reform UK, toss-up
- Kingswinford and South Staffordshire Conservative, toss-up
- Wolverhampton West Labour, safe seat
- South Shropshire Conservative, toss-up
- Wyre Forest Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated