South Shropshire
Westminster constituency · England · West Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a 98% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 82%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Lib Dems | Reform UK | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Shropshire | 30.6% | 27.1% | 25.0% | 8.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+10.2 | 10.3%+16.8 | 23.1%+1.9 | 24.3%−15.9 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 95,559 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 53 |
| Employment rate | 79.4% |
Current member
Stuart Anderson · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 3.1 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 3.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stuart Anderson Elected | Conservative | 17,628 | 34.1 |
| Matthew Green | Lib Dems | 16,004 | 31.0 |
| Charles Shackerley-Bennett | Reform UK | 9,171 | 17.8 |
| Simon Thomson | Labour | 6,939 | 13.4 |
| Hilary Wendt | Green | 1,911 | 3.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Shrewsbury Labour, safe seat
- Telford Reform UK, competitive
- North Herefordshire Green, safe seat
- North Shropshire Lib Dems, safe seat
- The Wrekin Conservative, toss-up
- Wyre Forest Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated