Shrewsbury
Westminster constituency · England · West Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 8%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shrewsbury | 32.0% | 24.3% | 19.5% | 11.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+7.8 | 23.1%+1.3 | 20.4%−0.9 | 10.3%+1.0 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 101,486 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 44 |
| Employment rate | 84.2% |
Current member
Julia Buckley · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 22.0 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 7.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Julia Buckley Elected | Labour | 22,932 | 44.5 |
| Daniel Kawczynski | Conservative | 11,577 | 22.5 |
| Victor Applegate | Reform UK | 7,524 | 14.6 |
| Alex Wagner | Lib Dems | 6,722 | 13.0 |
| Julian Dean | Green | 2,387 | 4.6 |
| Chris Bovill | Other | 241 | 0.5 |
| James Gollins | Other | 177 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- North Shropshire Lib Dems, safe seat
- South Shropshire Conservative, toss-up
- Wrexham Reform UK, toss-up
- The Wrekin Conservative, toss-up
- Telford Reform UK, competitive
- Chester South and Eddisbury Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated