Wrexham
Westminster constituency · Wales
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 65% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.3 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 93%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Plaid Cymru | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wrexham | 24.5% | 23.6% | 20.5% | 16.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+1.5 | 24.3%−0.7 | 20.4% | 1.3%+15.5 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 99,443 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 42 |
| Employment rate | 73.7% |
Current member
Andrew Ranger · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 14.7 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 2.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Ranger Elected | Labour | 15,836 | 39.2 |
| Sarah Atherton | Conservative | 9,888 | 24.5 |
| Charles Dodman | Reform UK | 6,915 | 17.1 |
| Becca Martin | Plaid Cymru | 4,138 | 10.2 |
| Timothy Sly | Lib Dems | 1,777 | 4.4 |
| Tim Morgan | Green | 1,339 | 3.3 |
| Paul Ashton | Other | 480 | 1.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- North Shropshire Lib Dems, safe seat
- Chester South and Eddisbury Conservative, safe seat
- Ellesmere Port and Bromborough Labour, safe seat
- Chester North and Neston Labour, safe seat
- Alyn and Deeside Reform UK, toss-up
- Runcorn and Helsby Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated