Ellesmere Port and Bromborough
Westminster constituency · England · North West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 19.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ellesmere Port and Bromborough | 45.5% | 26.0% | 11.0% | 9.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+21.2 | 23.1%+2.9 | 20.4%−9.4 | 10.4%−1.4 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 96,430 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 41 |
| Employment rate | 71.4% |
Current member
Justin Madders · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 40.3 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 19.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Madders Elected | Labour | 24,186 | 57.6 |
| Michael Alreed | Reform UK | 7,278 | 17.3 |
| Lee Evans | Conservative | 5,210 | 12.4 |
| Harry Gorman | Green | 2,706 | 6.5 |
| Chris Carubia | Lib Dems | 2,328 | 5.6 |
| Ruth Boulton | Other | 256 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Liverpool Garston Labour, safe seat
- Liverpool Wavertree Labour, safe seat
- Widnes and Halewood Labour, safe seat
- Liverpool West Derby Labour, safe seat
- Runcorn and Helsby Labour, safe seat
- Liverpool Riverside Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated