Runcorn and Helsby
Westminster constituency · England · North West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 11.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Runcorn and Helsby | 40.6% | 28.7% | 13.6% | 9.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+16.3 | 23.1%+5.7 | 20.4%−6.9 | 10.4%−0.8 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 93,517 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 43 |
| Employment rate | 68.5% |
Current member
Sarah Pochin · Reform UK
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 34.8 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 11.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Amesbury Elected | Labour | 22,358 | 52.9 |
| Jason Moorcroft | Reform UK | 7,662 | 18.1 |
| Jade Marsden | Conservative | 6,756 | 16.0 |
| Chris Copeman | Green | 2,715 | 6.4 |
| Chris Rowe | Lib Dems | 2,149 | 5.1 |
| Danny Clarke | Other | 479 | 1.1 |
| Paul Murphy | Other | 116 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Widnes and Halewood Labour, safe seat
- Ellesmere Port and Bromborough Labour, safe seat
- Liverpool Garston Labour, safe seat
- St Helens South and Whiston Labour, safe seat
- Warrington South Labour, safe seat
- Knowsley Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated