Liverpool Garston
Westminster constituency · England · North West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 31.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Green | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool Garston | 49.2% | 18.1% | 10.1% | 8.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+25.0 | 23.1%−5.0 | 10.4%−0.3 | 5.0%+3.9 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 95,178 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 41 |
| Employment rate | 63.8% |
Current member
Maria Eagle · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 47.9 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 31.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maria Eagle Elected | Labour | 24,510 | 58.4 |
| Kiera Hubbard | Reform UK | 4,406 | 10.5 |
| Sam Gorst | Other | 3,294 | 7.8 |
| John Hyland | Lib Dems | 3,239 | 7.7 |
| Daniel Bowman | Conservative | 2,943 | 7.0 |
| Muryam Sheikh | Green | 2,816 | 6.7 |
| Alan Tormey | Other | 401 | 1.0 |
| Jane Lawrence | Other | 272 | 0.7 |
| Frank Sweeney | Other | 112 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Liverpool Wavertree Labour, safe seat
- Liverpool West Derby Labour, safe seat
- Ellesmere Port and Bromborough Labour, safe seat
- Knowsley Labour, safe seat
- Widnes and Halewood Labour, safe seat
- Liverpool Walton Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated