Liverpool West Derby
Westminster constituency · England · North West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 32.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Green | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool West Derby | 53.8% | 21.6% | 9.9% | 6.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+29.5 | 23.1%−1.4 | 10.4%−0.5 | 5.0%+1.4 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 98,772 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 39 |
| Employment rate | 67.8% |
Current member
Ian Byrne · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 53.7 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 32.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Byrne Elected | Labour | 25,302 | 66.6 |
| Jack Boyd | Reform UK | 4,879 | 12.8 |
| Maria Coughlan | Green | 2,647 | 7.0 |
| Steve Radford | Other | 2,336 | 6.1 |
| Charlotte Duthie | Conservative | 1,566 | 4.1 |
| Kayleigh Halpin | Lib Dems | 1,276 | 3.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Liverpool Wavertree Labour, safe seat
- Liverpool Walton Labour, safe seat
- Knowsley Labour, safe seat
- Liverpool Riverside Labour, safe seat
- Liverpool Garston Labour, safe seat
- Bootle Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated