Bootle
Westminster constituency · England · North West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 33.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Green | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bootle | 55.2% | 21.9% | 12.0% | 4.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+30.9 | 23.1%−1.2 | 10.4%+1.6 | 20.4%−16.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 101,709 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 40 |
| Employment rate | 67.2% |
Current member
Peter Dowd · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 56.5 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 33.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Dowd Elected | Labour | 26,729 | 68.8 |
| Darren Burns | Reform UK | 4,746 | 12.2 |
| Neil Doolin | Green | 3,904 | 10.0 |
| Rowena Bass | Conservative | 1,674 | 4.3 |
| John Gibson | Lib Dems | 1,301 | 3.4 |
| Ian Smith | Other | 526 | 1.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Sefton Central Labour, safe seat
- Liverpool Riverside Labour, safe seat
- Liverpool Walton Labour, safe seat
- Wallasey Labour, safe seat
- Birkenhead Labour, safe seat
- Liverpool West Derby Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated