Sefton Central
Westminster constituency · England · North West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 26.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sefton Central | 46.7% | 20.1% | 15.8% | 9.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+22.4 | 23.1%−3.0 | 20.4%−4.6 | 10.4%−0.7 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 91,809 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 50 |
| Employment rate | 77.5% |
Current member
Bill Esterson · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 38.5 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 26.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Esterson Elected | Labour | 26,772 | 56.4 |
| Marcus Bleasdale | Conservative | 8,490 | 17.9 |
| Nagender Chindam | Reform UK | 5,767 | 12.2 |
| Kieran Dams | Green | 3,294 | 6.9 |
| Gareth Lloyd-Johnson | Lib Dems | 2,630 | 5.5 |
| Ralph James | Other | 496 | 1.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Bootle Labour, safe seat
- Liverpool Walton Labour, safe seat
- Liverpool Riverside Labour, safe seat
- Wallasey Labour, safe seat
- Liverpool West Derby Labour, safe seat
- Birkenhead Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated