Birkenhead
Westminster constituency · England · North West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 15.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Green | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birkenhead | 40.1% | 24.4% | 21.4% | 6.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+15.8 | 23.1%+1.4 | 10.4%+11.0 | 20.4%−13.5 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 106,281 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 41 |
| Employment rate | 69.4% |
Current member
Alison McGovern · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 32.0 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 15.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alison McGovern Elected | Labour | 22,468 | 52.1 |
| Jo Bird | Green | 8,670 | 20.1 |
| Tony Stanley | Reform UK | 6,142 | 14.2 |
| Sarah Payne | Conservative | 3,238 | 7.5 |
| Stuart Kelly | Lib Dems | 2,292 | 5.3 |
| Catherine Evans | Other | 324 | 0.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Wallasey Labour, safe seat
- Liverpool Riverside Labour, safe seat
- Bootle Labour, safe seat
- Liverpool Wavertree Labour, safe seat
- Wirral West Labour, safe seat
- Liverpool Walton Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated