Wirral West
Westminster constituency · England · North West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 14.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wirral West | 37.8% | 23.5% | 20.1% | 11.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+13.5 | 20.4%+3.1 | 23.1%−2.9 | 10.4%+0.8 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 88,387 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 50 |
| Employment rate | 77.0% |
Current member
Matthew Patrick · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 20.0 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 14.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Patrick Elected | Labour | 23,156 | 46.4 |
| Jenny Johnson | Conservative | 13,158 | 26.3 |
| Ken Ferguson | Reform UK | 6,422 | 12.9 |
| Gail Jenkinson | Green | 4,160 | 8.3 |
| Peter Reisdorf | Lib Dems | 3,055 | 6.1 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Alyn and Deeside Reform UK, toss-up
- Chester North and Neston Labour, safe seat
- Birkenhead Labour, safe seat
- Wallasey Labour, safe seat
- Liverpool Riverside Labour, safe seat
- Clwyd East Conservative, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated