Alyn and Deeside
Westminster constituency · Wales
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 72% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.7 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 87%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Plaid Cymru | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alyn and Deeside | 28.1% | 26.5% | 16.8% | 9.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+5.0 | 24.3%+2.3 | 20.4%−3.6 | 1.3%+8.4 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 102,432 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 42 |
| Employment rate | 76.7% |
Current member
Sir Mark Tami · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 20.3 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 2.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Tami Elected | Labour | 18,395 | 42.4 |
| Vicki Roskams | Reform UK | 9,601 | 22.1 |
| Jeremy Kent | Conservative | 7,892 | 18.2 |
| Richard Marbrow | Lib Dems | 2,065 | 4.8 |
| Jack Morris | Plaid Cymru | 1,938 | 4.5 |
| Karl Macnaughton | Green | 1,926 | 4.4 |
| Edwin Duggan | Other | 1,575 | 3.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Chester North and Neston Labour, safe seat
- Wirral West Labour, safe seat
- Birkenhead Labour, safe seat
- Wallasey Labour, safe seat
- Clwyd East Conservative, toss-up
- Ellesmere Port and Bromborough Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated