Chester North and Neston
Westminster constituency · England · North West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 17.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chester North and Neston | 39.0% | 21.3% | 20.4% | 13.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+14.8 | 23.1%−1.7 | 20.4% | 10.4%+2.6 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 95,282 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 42 |
| Employment rate | 89.0% |
Current member
Samantha Dixon · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 26.6 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 17.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Samantha Dixon Elected | Labour | 22,258 | 49.8 |
| Simon Eardley | Conservative | 10,388 | 23.2 |
| Nicholas Goulding | Reform UK | 5,870 | 13.1 |
| Nick Brown | Green | 4,102 | 9.2 |
| Steve Gribbon | Lib Dems | 2,076 | 4.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Alyn and Deeside Reform UK, toss-up
- Wirral West Labour, safe seat
- Birkenhead Labour, safe seat
- Wallasey Labour, safe seat
- Ellesmere Port and Bromborough Labour, safe seat
- Liverpool Riverside Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated