Clwyd East
Westminster constituency · Wales
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a 65% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.7 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 98%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Plaid Cymru | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clwyd East | 25.1% | 23.8% | 22.3% | 13.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+4.7 | 23.1%+0.8 | 24.3%−2.0 | 1.3%+12.3 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 96,534 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 49 |
| Employment rate | 76.7% |
Current member
Becky Gittins · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 9.7 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 1.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Becky Gittins Elected | Labour | 18,484 | 38.7 |
| James Davies | Conservative | 13,862 | 29.0 |
| Kirsty Walmsley | Reform UK | 7,626 | 15.9 |
| Paul Penlington | Plaid Cymru | 3,733 | 7.8 |
| Alec Dauncey | Lib Dems | 1,859 | 3.9 |
| Lee Lavery | Green | 1,659 | 3.5 |
| Rob Roberts | Other | 599 | 1.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Alyn and Deeside Reform UK, toss-up
- Wirral West Labour, safe seat
- Chester North and Neston Labour, safe seat
- Clwyd North Conservative, toss-up
- Wallasey Labour, safe seat
- Birkenhead Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated