Clwyd North
Westminster constituency · Wales
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a 95% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 84%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Plaid Cymru | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clwyd North | 27.5% | 24.3% | 20.3% | 13.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+7.1 | 23.1%+1.2 | 24.3%−4.0 | 1.3%+11.8 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 99,781 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 46 |
| Employment rate | 73.7% |
Current member
Gill German · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 2.9 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 3.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gill German Elected | Labour | 14,794 | 35.5 |
| Darren Millar | Conservative | 13,598 | 32.7 |
| Jamie Orange | Reform UK | 7,000 | 16.8 |
| Paul Rowlinson | Plaid Cymru | 3,159 | 7.6 |
| David Wilkins | Lib Dems | 1,685 | 4.1 |
| Martyn Hogg | Green | 1,391 | 3.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Clwyd East Conservative, toss-up
- Wirral West Labour, safe seat
- Alyn and Deeside Reform UK, toss-up
- Chester North and Neston Labour, safe seat
- Bangor Aberconwy Plaid Cymru, toss-up
- Wallasey Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated