Bangor Aberconwy
Westminster constituency · Wales
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Plaid Cymru a 56% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.8 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 97%.
Compared with the average
| Plaid Cymru | Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bangor Aberconwy | 23.2% | 22.0% | 21.4% | 19.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 1.3%+21.9 | 23.1%−1.1 | 24.3%−2.8 | 20.4%−1.2 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 92,628 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 45 |
| Employment rate | 70.2% |
Current member
Claire Hughes · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 11.8 points.
Our current projection: Plaid Cymru ahead by 1.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Claire Hughes Elected | Labour | 14,008 | 33.6 |
| Catrin Wager | Plaid Cymru | 9,112 | 21.9 |
| Robin Millar | Conservative | 9,036 | 21.7 |
| John Clark | Reform UK | 6,091 | 14.6 |
| Rachael Roberts | Lib Dems | 1,524 | 3.7 |
| Petra Haig | Green | 1,361 | 3.3 |
| Kathrine Jones | Other | 424 | 1.0 |
| Steve Marshall | Other | 104 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Clwyd North Conservative, toss-up
- Clwyd East Conservative, toss-up
- Ynys Môn Plaid Cymru, safe seat
- Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr Reform UK, safe seat
- Dwyfor Meirionnydd Plaid Cymru, safe seat
- Wirral West Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated