Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr
Westminster constituency · Wales
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 8%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Plaid Cymru | Conservative | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr | 26.9% | 18.3% | 16.0% | 15.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+3.8 | 1.3%+17.0 | 20.4%−4.4 | 24.3%−9.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 98,347 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 47 |
| Employment rate | 74.5% |
Current member
Steve Witherden · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 8.8 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 8.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Witherden Elected | Labour | 12,709 | 29.4 |
| Oliver Lewis | Reform UK | 8,894 | 20.6 |
| Craig Williams | Conservative | 7,775 | 18.0 |
| Glyn Preston | Lib Dems | 6,470 | 15.0 |
| Elwyn Vaughn | Plaid Cymru | 5,667 | 13.1 |
| Jeremy Brignell-Thorp | Green | 1,744 | 4.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Dwyfor Meirionnydd Plaid Cymru, safe seat
- Bangor Aberconwy Plaid Cymru, toss-up
- Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe Lib Dems, toss-up
- Ynys Môn Plaid Cymru, safe seat
- Caerfyrddin Plaid Cymru, safe seat
- Clwyd North Conservative, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated