Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe
Westminster constituency · Wales
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Lib Dems a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 86%.
Compared with the average
| Lib Dems | Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe | 26.4% | 22.8% | 20.7% | 10.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 10.3%+16.1 | 20.4%+2.4 | 23.1%−2.4 | 24.3%−13.8 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 91,992 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 50 |
| Employment rate | 69.7% |
Current member
David Chadwick · Lib Dems
Previous election (2024)
The Lib Dems won by 3.2 points.
Our current projection: the Lib Dems ahead by 3.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| David Chadwick Elected | Lib Dems | 13,736 | 29.5 |
| Fay Jones | Conservative | 12,264 | 26.4 |
| Matthew Dorrance | Labour | 9,904 | 21.3 |
| Adam Hill | Reform UK | 6,567 | 14.1 |
| Emily Durrant-Munro | Plaid Cymru | 2,280 | 4.9 |
| Amerjit Kaur-Dhaliwal | Green | 1,188 | 2.6 |
| Jonathan Harrington | Other | 372 | 0.8 |
| Lady Lily The Pink | Other | 237 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare Reform UK, toss-up
- Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney Labour, competitive
- Pontypridd Labour, toss-up
- Rhondda and Ogmore Reform UK, toss-up
- Caerphilly Plaid Cymru, safe seat
- Aberafan Maesteg Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated