Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney
Westminster constituency · Wales
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 16%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Plaid Cymru | Reform UK | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney | 31.9% | 24.0% | 13.6% | 9.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+7.7 | 1.3%+22.7 | 23.1%−9.5 | 5.0%+4.6 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 94,680 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 42 |
| Employment rate | 64.4% |
Current member
Nick Smith · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 40.7 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 7.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Smith Elected | Labour | 16,027 | 53.6 |
| Niamh Salkeld | Plaid Cymru | 3,844 | 12.8 |
| Hannah Jarvis | Conservative | 3,776 | 12.6 |
| Mike Whatley | Other | 2,409 | 8.1 |
| Anne Baker | Green | 1,719 | 5.7 |
| Jackie Charlton | Lib Dems | 1,268 | 4.2 |
| Yas Iqbal | Other | 570 | 1.9 |
| Robert Griffiths | Other | 309 | 1.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Caerphilly Plaid Cymru, safe seat
- Torfaen Reform UK, toss-up
- Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare Reform UK, toss-up
- Cardiff North Labour, safe seat
- Pontypridd Labour, toss-up
- Cardiff East Labour, competitive
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated