Pontypridd
Westminster constituency · Wales
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a 49% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.0 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 94%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Plaid Cymru | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pontypridd | 24.8% | 24.3% | 22.6% | 8.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+0.6 | 23.1%+1.3 | 1.3%+21.3 | 20.4%−11.6 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 102,658 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 40 |
| Employment rate | 64.4% |
Current member
Alex Davies-Jones · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 21.3 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 2.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Davies-Jones Elected | Labour | 16,225 | 41.2 |
| Steven Bayliss | Reform UK | 7,823 | 19.9 |
| William Rees | Plaid Cymru | 5,275 | 13.4 |
| Jack Robson | Conservative | 3,775 | 9.6 |
| Wayne Owen | Other | 2,567 | 6.5 |
| Angela Karadog | Green | 1,865 | 4.7 |
| David Mathias | Lib Dems | 1,606 | 4.1 |
| Joe Biddulph | Other | 198 | 0.5 |
| Jonathan Bishop | Other | 44 | 0.1 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Cardiff West Plaid Cymru, safe seat
- Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare Reform UK, toss-up
- Vale of Glamorgan Conservative, toss-up
- Caerphilly Plaid Cymru, safe seat
- Cardiff North Labour, safe seat
- Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney Labour, competitive
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated