Cardiff North
Westminster constituency · Wales
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 8%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Conservative | Plaid Cymru | Reform UK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff North | 27.6% | 18.5% | 17.7% | 16.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+3.3 | 20.4%−1.9 | 1.3%+16.4 | 23.1%−6.3 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 94,983 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 40 |
| Employment rate | 72.7% |
Current member
Anna McMorrin · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 23.6 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 8.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anna McMorrin Elected | Labour | 20,849 | 43.9 |
| Joel Williams | Conservative | 9,642 | 20.3 |
| Lawrence Gwynn | Reform UK | 5,985 | 12.6 |
| Malcolm Phillips | Plaid Cymru | 4,669 | 9.8 |
| Irfan Latif | Lib Dems | 3,168 | 6.7 |
| Meg Shepherd-Foster | Green | 3,160 | 6.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Cardiff East Labour, competitive
- Caerphilly Plaid Cymru, safe seat
- Cardiff West Plaid Cymru, safe seat
- Cardiff South and Penarth Labour, competitive
- Pontypridd Labour, toss-up
- Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney Labour, competitive
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated