Cardiff East
Westminster constituency · Wales
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 24%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Plaid Cymru | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff East | 24.7% | 17.2% | 16.2% | 15.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+0.5 | 23.1%−5.8 | 1.3%+14.9 | 10.3%+5.2 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 111,599 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 33 |
| Employment rate | 80.6% |
Current member
Jo Stevens · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 23.3 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 7.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jo Stevens Elected | Labour | 15,833 | 40.5 |
| Rodney Berman | Lib Dems | 6,736 | 17.2 |
| Lee Canning | Reform UK | 4,980 | 12.7 |
| Sam Coates | Green | 3,916 | 10.0 |
| Beatrice Brandon | Conservative | 3,913 | 10.0 |
| Cadewyn Skelley | Plaid Cymru | 3,550 | 9.1 |
| John Williams | Other | 195 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Cardiff North Labour, safe seat
- Caerphilly Plaid Cymru, safe seat
- Cardiff South and Penarth Labour, competitive
- Newport West and Islwyn Labour, toss-up
- Newport East Labour, toss-up
- Weston-super-Mare Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated