Caerphilly
Westminster constituency · Wales
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Plaid Cymru a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 9.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 2%.
Compared with the average
| Plaid Cymru | Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caerphilly | 33.9% | 24.2% | 19.8% | 9.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 1.3%+32.6 | 23.1%+1.2 | 24.3%−4.4 | 20.4%−11.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 96,268 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 42 |
| Employment rate | 77.7% |
Current member
Chris Evans · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 16.8 points.
Our current projection: Plaid Cymru ahead by 9.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Evans Elected | Labour | 14,538 | 38.0 |
| Lindsay Whittle | Plaid Cymru | 8,119 | 21.2 |
| Joshua Kim | Reform UK | 7,754 | 20.3 |
| Brandon Gorman | Conservative | 4,385 | 11.5 |
| Steve Aicheler | Lib Dems | 1,788 | 4.7 |
| Mark Thomas | Green | 1,650 | 4.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Cardiff North Labour, safe seat
- Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney Labour, competitive
- Cardiff East Labour, competitive
- Cardiff West Plaid Cymru, safe seat
- Pontypridd Labour, toss-up
- Torfaen Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated