Torfaen
Westminster constituency · Wales
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 61% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.4 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 91%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Labour | Plaid Cymru | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torfaen | 26.3% | 25.8% | 16.2% | 14.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+3.3 | 24.3%+1.5 | 1.3%+14.9 | 20.4%−6.3 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 92,860 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 42 |
| Employment rate | 75.2% |
Current member
Nick Thomas-Symonds · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 20.5 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 2.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Thomas-Symonds Elected | Labour | 15,176 | 42.5 |
| Ian Williams | Reform UK | 7,854 | 22.0 |
| Nathan Edmunds | Conservative | 5,737 | 16.1 |
| Matthew Jones | Plaid Cymru | 2,571 | 7.2 |
| Philip Davies | Green | 1,705 | 4.8 |
| Brendan Roberts | Lib Dems | 1,644 | 4.6 |
| Lee Dunning | Other | 881 | 2.5 |
| Nikki Brooke | Other | 137 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Newport East Labour, toss-up
- Newport West and Islwyn Labour, toss-up
- Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney Labour, competitive
- Caerphilly Plaid Cymru, safe seat
- Cardiff East Labour, competitive
- Cardiff North Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated