Newport East
Westminster constituency · Wales
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a 50% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.3 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 92%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Plaid Cymru | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newport East | 26.5% | 26.2% | 14.7% | 11.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+2.2 | 23.1%+3.2 | 20.4%−5.7 | 1.3%+10.3 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 111,847 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 37 |
| Employment rate | 74.2% |
Current member
Jessica Morden · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 23.4 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 2.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jessica Morden Elected | Labour | 16,370 | 42.5 |
| Tommy Short | Reform UK | 7,361 | 19.1 |
| Rachel Buckler | Conservative | 6,487 | 16.8 |
| Jonathan Clark | Plaid Cymru | 2,239 | 5.8 |
| Lauren James | Green | 2,092 | 5.4 |
| John Miller | Lib Dems | 2,045 | 5.3 |
| Pippa Bartolotti | Other | 1,802 | 4.7 |
| Mike Ford | Other | 135 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Newport West and Islwyn Labour, toss-up
- Torfaen Reform UK, toss-up
- Cardiff East Labour, competitive
- Cardiff North Labour, safe seat
- Caerphilly Plaid Cymru, safe seat
- Monmouthshire Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated