Monmouthshire
Westminster constituency · Wales
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 11%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Labour | Reform UK | Plaid Cymru | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monmouthshire | 30.2% | 21.6% | 18.1% | 11.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+9.8 | 24.3%−2.7 | 23.1%−4.9 | 1.3%+10.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 93,886 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 49 |
| Employment rate | 75.9% |
Current member
Catherine Fookes · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 6.6 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 8.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Catherine Fookes Elected | Labour | 21,010 | 41.3 |
| David Davies | Conservative | 17,672 | 34.8 |
| Max Windsor-Peplow | Reform UK | 5,438 | 10.7 |
| Ian Chandler | Green | 2,357 | 4.6 |
| William Powell | Lib Dems | 2,279 | 4.5 |
| Ioan Bellin | Plaid Cymru | 1,273 | 2.5 |
| Owen Lewis | Other | 457 | 0.9 |
| June Davies | Other | 255 | 0.5 |
| Emma Meredith | Other | 103 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Bristol North West Labour, safe seat
- North Somerset Conservative, safe seat
- Bristol Central Green, safe seat
- Bristol South Labour, competitive
- Newport West and Islwyn Labour, toss-up
- Newport East Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated