North Somerset
Westminster constituency · England · South West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 13%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Labour | Reform UK | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Somerset | 31.1% | 23.4% | 20.8% | 11.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+10.7 | 24.3%−0.8 | 23.1%−2.2 | 10.3%+1.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 94,708 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 47 |
| Employment rate | 87.1% |
Current member
Sadik Al-Hassan · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 1.2 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 7.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sadik Al-Hassan Elected | Labour | 19,138 | 35.6 |
| Liam Fox | Conservative | 18,499 | 34.4 |
| Ash Cartman | Lib Dems | 7,121 | 13.2 |
| Alexander Kokkinoftas | Reform UK | 5,602 | 10.4 |
| Oscar Livesey-Lodwick | Green | 3,273 | 6.1 |
| Suneil Basu | Other | 133 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Bristol North West Labour, safe seat
- Bristol Central Green, safe seat
- Bristol South Labour, competitive
- Wells and Mendip Hills Lib Dems, safe seat
- Monmouthshire Conservative, safe seat
- North East Somerset and Hanham Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated