Bristol North West
Westminster constituency · England · South West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 16.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Green | Reform UK | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol North West | 38.2% | 21.2% | 16.8% | 13.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+13.9 | 10.4%+10.8 | 23.1%−6.2 | 20.4%−7.2 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 110,008 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 36 |
| Employment rate | 83.5% |
Current member
Darren Jones · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 32.3 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 16.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Jones Elected | Labour | 24,058 | 49.6 |
| Mary Page | Green | 8,389 | 17.3 |
| Laura Saunders | Conservative | 6,773 | 14.0 |
| Scarlett O'Connor | Reform UK | 4,863 | 10.0 |
| Caroline Gooch | Lib Dems | 4,159 | 8.6 |
| Ben Smith | Other | 222 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Bristol Central Green, safe seat
- North Somerset Conservative, safe seat
- Bristol South Labour, competitive
- Monmouthshire Conservative, safe seat
- Bristol East Labour, toss-up
- Filton and Bradley Stoke Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated