Bristol South
Westminster constituency · England · South West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 20%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Green | Reform UK | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol South | 33.7% | 27.0% | 21.8% | 10.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+9.5 | 10.4%+16.6 | 23.1%−1.3 | 20.4%−10.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 104,457 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 35 |
| Employment rate | 82.7% |
Current member
Karin Smyth · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 17.7 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 6.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Karin Smyth Elected | Labour | 18,521 | 42.7 |
| Jai Breitnauer | Green | 10,855 | 25.0 |
| Richard Visick | Reform UK | 6,195 | 14.3 |
| Liz Brennan | Conservative | 4,947 | 11.4 |
| Andrew Brown | Lib Dems | 2,721 | 6.3 |
| Neil Norton | Other | 164 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Bristol Central Green, safe seat
- Bristol East Labour, toss-up
- North East Somerset and Hanham Labour, toss-up
- Bristol North West Labour, safe seat
- Bristol North East Labour, safe seat
- North Somerset Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated